Salt Lake County Housing Trends – September 2020

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Market Trends

Things did start to slow in September, but I would not say the competition for housing changed any for Salt Lake County.  New listings continue to trail 2019, as sellers continue to be conservative with their plans to move up and the seasonal aspects of the housing cycle begin to take effect.  Listings Under Contract continued to climb as Buyers continue to purchase just about every listing hitting the market, which was evident in the fact that it was the best quarter ever for home sales.  Lending is staying stable as rates hover around 3%.

This first graph shows the # of Active Listings and those Under Contract.  This represents a version of Supply (Active Listings) and Demand (Listings Under Contract) for Salt Lake County.  Historically, Supply has always been higher than Demand, but the lines crossed just before COVID-19 started ramping and then again after the restrictions began lifting, and this divergence is only getting wider.  For Sellers this is great, other than concerns of increased contract cancellation rate.  For Buyers, it means tight competition and rising home prices. 

These two graphs represent the density of Active listings (left graph) and Ratio of Active to Under Contract Listings (right graph).  Draper (84020) had the most Active Listings at the end of September, while Downtown SLC (84101) continues to have more Supply than Demand.  This might be a useful graph when trying to understand what area might have less competition when looking to buy, or too much inventory when planning to sell, not that too much is really a thing right now. 

These two graphs represent the Total # of New Listings for the Month (left graph) and the change in New Listings for that area compared to last year (right graph).  Herriman (84096) again had the most New Listings for September, while Downtown Salt Lake City (84101) again had the biggest increase in listings year over year. This might also be a useful graph when trying to understand what area might have less competition when looking to buy, or too much inventory when planning to sell. 

This set of graphs that shows the total number of Listings by Week (left graph) for 2019 and 2020, and then the Cumulative Number of Listings (right graph). The gap in listings continues to hover around a 10% deficit in listings for the year. 

This graph shows the average Selling Price and the # of Days on Market for listings that sold in September.  Yalecrest Area (84105) had the lowest DOM (43 days) and avg price of $557K and Bluffdale/Riverdale (84065) is near average price ($438K) but homes are now siting 3x as long (134 days).  Again, this points to selling and buying patterns for an area and is something to consider if you do not have a preference for where you live.

Months of Inventory changed some this month, 3 zip codes turned back to red after having 6 areas near equilibrium in August, but overall the deficit appears to be softening.  Again, this graph summarizes what we are seeing in many of the others graphs and feeling while helping Buyers find a home.  Different sources give differing guidance, but the NAR states an average of 6 months means there is equilibrium of Buyers and Sellers in the market.  Downtown Salt Lake City (84101) still has the highest Months of Inventory at 15 months, while West Jordan (84081) has the lowest just over two weeks of inventory.  If you are a Buyer and do not have a preference on location or if you do not like competing, consider looking downtown.  Now might be a great time to explore that area.

With the Third Quarter ending, there are now three data points to compare 2020 to historic Listing and Sales information.  The trend at Q2 had Salt Lake closer to the Recovery Years (2010-2014), but it appears some listings delayed by COVID did come to the market in Q3 pushing us more towards what we’ve experienced for the last few years (2015-2019).  For 2020 Home Sales though, at Q2 the expected line was sitting right in the middle of the Pre/Post-Recovery Lines and the Recession/Recovery Lines, and as you read earlier, Q3 became the best sales quarter ever.  My current question is, where will the houses to sell come from for Q4?  Will sellers enter the market to take advantage of the appreciation they have seen this year and the great interest rates? 

Anyway, thanks for your time.  If you’d like to connect or share your thoughts, I can be reached via email at craig@craigtheagent.com.

 

Please remember:

- Zip codes do not reflect subdivisions, and any given subdivision could have completely different trend than the zip code it is in.

- All graphical information is collected from UtahRealestate.com.

 

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